Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 17 - 21

The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session lower against its U.S. counterpart, coming off a seven-day high as uncertainty over the future of central bank stimulus measures boosted demand for the safe haven greenback.

AUD/USD hit 0.9665 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since June 6; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9569 by close of trade on Friday, 0.69% lower for the day but still up 1.56% for the week, the first weekly advance in six weeks.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9324, the low from June 11 and a 33-month low and resistance at 0.9665, Thursday’s session high.

A series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data releases on Friday raised concerns over the outlook for the economic recovery ahead of this week’s upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Data showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell unexpectedly in the current month after rising to the highest level in almost six years in May.

Separate reports showed that U.S. industrial production was flat in May, while the capacity utilization rate fell unexpectedly last month.

Meanwhile, in Australia, official data released Thursday showed that the number of employed people in Australia rose by 1,100 in May, beating expectations for a 10,000 decline , after a 45,000 increase the previous month. 

The report also showed that Australia's unemployment rate ticked down to 5.5% last month, from 5.6% in April. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged in May.

In the coming week, markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, as investors look to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for any indication on when the U.S. central bank may start to unwind its easing policies.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its latest policy-setting meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, June 17

Australia is to produce a report on new motor vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.

The U.S. is to publish the Empire state manufacturing index.

Also Monday, finance ministers and central bankers from the G8 group are to hold the first day of a two day summit in Northern Ireland.

Tuesday, June 18

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, housing starts and consumer price inflation.

Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers from the G8 group are to hold the second day of a two day summit in Northern Ireland.

Wednesday, June 19

Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The statement is to be followed by a closely watched press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke. The U.S. central bank is also to release its quarterly report on economic and inflation projections.

Thursday, June 20

China is to release the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index. The Asian nation is Australia’s largest trade partner.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, in addition to data on existing home sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

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