dimanche 21 avril 2013

Forex - Weekly outlook: April 22 - 26

The euro and the dollar rallied 1.4% against the yen on Friday after finance ministers from the Group of 20 nations indicated that they support Japan’s efforts to spur growth through aggressive monetary easing policies.

Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented easing program is aimed at achieving price stability and economic recovery and was in line with the G-20’s February agreement.

The statement eased concerns that Japan would face criticism after it announced earlier this month that it plans to double the size of its asset purchase program over the next two years.

"Japan's recent policy actions are intended to stop deflation and support domestic demand," the G-20 said.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda welcomed the G-20 statement, saying, "Now that we have obtained the support of the international community, we will be able to implement our program with confidence".

The dollar re-approached four-year highs against the yen, with USD/JPYhitting session highs of 99.69, before settling at 99.53, 1.4% higher for the day and 2.73% higher for the week.

EUR/JPY hit session highs of 130.25 before settling at 129.90, up 1.4% for the day and 2.72% higher for the week.

The euro hit session highs against the dollar on Friday after European Central Bank Council member Jens Weidmann said the bank would only cut interest rates if economic data worsened.

EUR/USD hit highs of 1.3129 on Friday before erasing gains to settle at 1.3050, 0.01% lower for the day and almost unchanged for the week.

The euro fell more than 1% against the dollar on Wednesday after Weidmann said that bank could adjust monetary policy if economic data warranted it.

Elsewhere, the pound was lower against the dollar on Friday after Fitch’s ratings agency downgraded the U.K.’s triple-A rating by one notch to AA+ with a stable outlook, citing the deteriorating economic outlook.

GBP/USD hit session lows of 1.5225 before settling at 1.5230, 0.32% lower for the day and down 0.43% for the week.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Friday’s U.S. data on first quarter growth amid lingering concerns that the U.S. economic recovery is losing momentum.

Markets will also be closely watching U.K. data on first quarter growth, as well as reports on manufacturing and service sector activity in the euro zone and the outcomes of policy meetings by the BoJ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 22

The U.S. is to release private sector data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Tuesday, April 23

China is to publish its HSBC manufacturing index, a leading economic indicator.

The euro zone is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity across the currency bloc, while Germany and France are to release individual reports.

The U.K. is to publish official data on public sector net borrowing and private sector data on industrial order expectations.

Canada is to publish official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Meanwhile, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to produce official data on new home sales as well as preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, April 24

The RBNZ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains important insights into the economic outlook. 

Australia is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales, an important indicator of economic health.

In the euro zone, Germany and Italy are to hold auctions of 10-year government bonds. Meanwhile, the Ifo Institute is to release a report on German business climate, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to release government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as data on crude oil inventories.

Later Wednesday, BoC Governor Mark Carney is to speak.

Thursday, April 25

Markets in Australia, New Zealand and Italy are to remain closed for national holidays.

Spain is to publish official data on the unemployment rate, a leading economic indicator.

The U.K. is to release preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

The U.S. is to produce the weekly government report on initial jobless claims later in the trading day.

Friday, April 26

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s monetary policy statement, which contains important insights into the economic outlook. The BoJ is to hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision after the rate announcement.

Japan is also to release official data on consumer inflation.

New Zealand is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on first quarter growth, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

The U.S. is also to release revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
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