Is sterling turning?

GBP: That so much attention is paid to a number which is prone to revisions and looks back over the previous 3 months is sometimes a mystery. Even more attention will be paid today because if GDP declines, the UK will have officially entered a triple-dip recession.  The market is looking for a 0.1% increase. A decline would see sterling hit as expectations of further QE increase. See how to trade the UK GDP with GBP/USD.

JPY:  Of course, it’s far too early to expect the recent bout of renewed QE measure to start impacting the inflation numbers in Japan, but the numbers out Friday morning will be key in knowing where the Bank of Japan is working from. Expectations are for headline CPI to fall 0.8%, with ex-fresh food declining 0.4% on the same YoY basis.

Idea of the Day

Sterling is not that far from more decisively breaking the upward correction seen on cable from the mid-March low of 1.4832 and today’s data just may decide whether the up-trend on cable is broken. It’s ironic that so much attention is paid to the first indication on GDP, given that the numbers are very much a look into the rear view mirror and are always later revised.

If we see GDP fall in today’s release, then the UK will have officially entered a triple-dip recession.  But even if we see the anticipated 0.1% increase, that will still represent a decline in output over the previous 6 months given the -0.3% decline in Q4 last year.  Trendline support for cable comes in at 1.5212, with EURGBP looking a little more vulnerable with support at 0.8502.

Latest FX News

JPY: The 100 level on USDJPY proving to be ever more pivotal for the market as it trades near but not through it.  The weekly portfolio flow data again showed Japanese investors to be selling foreign assets (rather than the buying anticipated post-BoJ decisions).  The other point to note is reticence of authorities to comment on the currency, implying they are probably happy with the levels currently prevailing.

EUR:  The single currency had held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing data seen this week. This is despite increased expectations for lower rates from the ECB next week. The lack of reaction in part reflects the fact that market interest rates (paid by banks) are already very low because of the plentiful liquidity in the market, so a cut in the benchmark rate from the ECB would have only limited impact on these market rates.

GBP:  Sterling treading cautiously ahead of the GDP numbers today.  Trendline support  for cable comes in at 1.5212, a break of which will be bearish and further confirm the correction in cable from the 1.4832 low is over.

AUD: Recovering from modest weakness towards the end of Wednesday on the back of stronger risk appetite globally, allowing AUDUSD to move back above the 1.03 level.

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